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Top 10 Ways to Retain Your Great Employees

"The quality of the supervision an employee receives
 is critical to employee retention".

People leave managers and supervisors more often than they leave companies or jobs. It is not enough that the supervisor is well-liked or a nice person, starting with clear expectations of the employee, the supervisor has a critical role to play in retention.

Anything the supervisor does to make an employee feel unvalued will contribute to turnover. Frequent employee complaints center on these areas.

--lack of clarity about expectations,
--lack of clarity about earning potential,
--lack of feedback about performance,
--failure to hold scheduled meetings, and
--failure to provide a framework within which the employee perceives he can succeed.


Key employee retention is critical to the long term health and success of your business. Managers readily agree that retaining your best employees ensures customer satisfaction, product sales, satisfied coworkers and reporting staff, effective succession planning and deeply imbedded organizational knowledge and learning.

  • The ability of the employee to speak his or her mind freely within the organization is another key factor in employee retention. Does your organization solicit ideas and provide an environment in which people are comfortable providing feedback? If so, employees offer ideas, feel free to criticize and commit to continuous improvement. If not, they bite their tongues or find themselves constantly in trouble - until they leave.

  • Talent and skill utilization is another environmental factor your key employees seek in your workplace. A motivated employee wants to contribute to work areas outside of his specific job description. How many people could contribute far more than they currently do? You just need to know their skills, talent and experience, and take the time to tap into it.

    For example, in a small company, a manager pursued a new marketing plan and logo with the help of external consultants. An internal sales rep, with seven years of ad agency and logo development experience, repeatedly offered to help. His offer was ignored and he cited this as one reason why he quit his job. In fact, the recognition that the company didn't want to take advantage of his knowledge and capabilities helped precipitate his job search.

  • The perception of fairness and equitable treatment is important in employee retention. In one company, a new sales rep was given the most potentially successful, commission-producing accounts. Current staff viewed these decisions as taking food off their tables. You can bet a number of them are looking for their next opportunity.

    In another instance, a staff person, just a year or two out of college, was given $20,000 in raises over a six month time period. Information of this type never stays secret in companies so you know, beyond any shadow of a doubt, the morale of several other employees will be affected.

    For example, you have a staff person who views her role as important and she brings ten years of experience, an M.B.A. and a great contribution record to the table. When she finds she is making less money than this employee, she is likely to look for a new job. Minimally, her morale and motivation will take a big hit. Did the staff person deserve the raises? Yes. But, recognize that these decisions had an impact on others.

  • When an employee is failing at work, I ask the W. Edwards Deming question, “What about the work system is causing the person to fail?” Most frequently, if the employee knows what they are supposed to do, I find the answer is time, tools, training, temperament or talent. The easiest to solve, and the ones most affecting employee retention, are tools, time and training. The employee must have the tools, time and training necessary to do their job well – or they will move to an employer who provides them.

  • Your best employees, those employees you want to retain, seek frequent opportunities to learn and grow in their careers, knowledge and skill. Without the opportunity to try new opportunities, sit on challenging and significant teams, attend seminars and read and discuss books, they feel they will stagnate. A career-oriented, valued employee must experience growth opportunities within your organization.

  • A common place complaint or lament I hear during an exit interview is that the employee never felt senior managers knew he existed. By senior managers I refer to the president of a small company or a department or division head in a larger company. Take time to meet with new employees to learn about their talents, abilities and skills. Meet with each employee periodically. You'll have more useful information and keep your fingers on the pulse of your organization. It's a critical tool to help employees feel welcomed, acknowledged and loyal.

  • No matter the circumstances, never, never, ever threaten an employee's job or income. Even if you know layoffs loom if you fail to meet production or sales goals, it is a mistake to foreshadow this information with employees. It makes them nervous; no matter how you phrase the information; no matter how you explain the information, even if you're absolutely correct, your best staff members will update their resumes. I'm not advocating keeping solid information away from people, however, think before you say anything that makes people feel they need to search for another job.

  • I place this final tip on every retention list I develop because it is so key and critical to retention success. Your staff members must feel rewarded, recognized and appreciated. Frequently saying thank you goes a long way. Monetary rewards, bonuses and gifts make the thank you even more appreciated. Understandable raises, tied to accomplishments and achievement, help retain staff.

    Commissions and bonuses that are easily calculated on a daily basis, and easily understood, raise motivation and help retain staff. Annually, I receive emails from staff members that provide information about raises nationally. You can bet that work is about the money and almost every individual wants more.
Take a look at your organization.  Are you doing your best to retain your top talent? Employ these ten tips in your organization to retain your desired, key employees and attract the best talent, too.



Being an Effective Team Coach


Effective coaching is about changing the future. Every coach is a coach because at some point in time he determined that he could make a difference for the destiny of a team and in the lives of individuals. He has decided that through his influence, mentoring, love and leadership, he can help people and groups of people be what they never thought they could become. Coaches believe that people and the future will be better because of them.

As leaders of a campus ministry, we operate in four roles–As a 1) Direction Setter, 2) Spokesperson, 3) Change-Agent and 4) Coach. As a Direction Setter and Change Agent you are responsible for shaping the future of the movement. As a Coach you are responsible for preparing, equipping and motivating those on your team to step into that future.

One element common to all effective coaches is this: They realize that their success is tied to their ability to make others successful. Their joy is in the development and victories of those on their team. As a ministry leader, you are a player-coach — a player who coaches and a coach who plays. The measure of your effectiveness is the development and accomplishment of those on your team — motivating and preparing others to play and win. Have you come to that point?

Every effective coach assumes at least two major responsibilities. First a coach must develop the individual talents and potential of each player on the team. Secondly the coach must mold the individuals into a team so they can maximize their chances of winning. Everything that a coach does revolves around these two responsibilities. As a Local Leader, your job is much like that of a coach. Your coaching revolves around developing others to be something and do something. You also must help them work together to maximize their effectiveness. What principles can we learn from the profession of coaching, which if applied to what we do, could make us more effective? What do effective coaches do?

1. CAST AND COMMUNICATE VISION
Every successful coach is able to paint a picture that taps into the aspirations of those on the team–to win the conference championship, a bowl game… the national championship. Coaches use every opportunity to communicate the vision to those around them –meetings, letters, slogans painted on the walls, pre-game talks, etc. After a while, if vision is backed up with consistent action, players begin to believe it. When Gary Barnett took the head football coaching job at hapless (no winning seasons between 1971 and 1994) Northwestern, he stood up and promised he would “Take the Purple to Pasadena.” Three seasons later, he delivered by winning the Big Ten championship. One player expressed the vision like this — “Coach Barnett set the goals for us, and we believed in them. He talked about ‘Belief Without Evidence’—faith in what we were doing and where all our hard work would take us. We really could see it coming.” The vision must include, not only what the team can achieve but also what each individual can become. What is your vision? How well are you communicating it?
2. ALIGN THE TEAM
Alignment has to do with getting the team on board with the vision and goals and then aligning them with the means of reaching those goals. A team is aligned when everything it does is consistent with what accomplishes the vision. Most players would like to win conference championships but they also must be willing to “pay the price” of accomplishing that goal. Effective campus leaders work at getting and keeping their teams aligned toward fulfilling the goals and the vision. Everything from the mission to the daily tasks must be pointing toward the fulfillment of the same vision. Are those on your team completely aligned to the vision? How can you tell?

3. MOTIVATE
Former Dallas Cowboy coach Tom Landry often described his coaching philosophy in a one-sentence job description–“To get a group of men to do something they don’t want to do in order to achieve what they have wanted all of their lives.” Doesn’t that sound a lot like your job as a ministry leader? Good coaches know that whining, grumbling and complaining are simply the expressions of the pain that it takes to accomplish something worthwhile. You too need to understand that your leadership team and students are involved in this movement because they really want their lives to matter. They are counting on you to motivate them to keep on keeping on, to develop ministry excellence and determined faith. How do we motivate them? Some coaches like Lombardi relied on fear. Other men like Steinbrenner of the Yankees have tried to buy success through high salaries. Maybe there’s a better way.
Often we assume that pursuing our vision and our goals automatically will motivate those who work with us. We are like the sales manager who took his new salesman to the bluff overlooking town and said, “Do you see that knoll down there? Now picture a beautiful home with a couple of new cars parked in the driveway. Can you see it? On one side of the house is a tennis court. On the other side is a swimming pool. Can you see it? Well, if you work hard enough and long enough, one day that can all be mine!” More than any other factor, working together to accomplish a shared vision and specific goals is what transforms a group of individual players into a team.
An effective coach doesn’t need to be a cheerleader but he must be a master at motivating others to accomplish objectives. He or she is able to stimulate others to action. Effective coaches know their personnel and what motivates each person on the team.

4. HAVE A GAME PLAN
Every coach knows his team, studies his situation and competition and forms a plan that will help them win. The basic plays don’t change. A game plan is the sequencing of plays and the readiness for every potential game situation. During the pre-season games, football teams run every play but during the season, coaches make a game plan built around the frequency and sequence of those same plays. How does your plan help you realize the vision? Practice prepares a team to play. Planning prepares a team to win.

5. SELECT AND DEVELOP PERSONNEL
The three major personnel issues deal with recruiting the right players, developing the players and placing the right players in the right positions. We recruit the right players by going after the Freshman class. This gives us four years to develop new leaders. We develop our leaders by giving them confidence, skills and experience. Third, we place our leaders in the right positions. Most quarterbacks would make poor tackles. Most tackles would make poor quarterbacks. Is everyone on your team in a place to make his or her maximum contribution to the vision and goals of the team?

6. COMMIT TO EXCELLENCE
Tom Landry had a sign in the Cowboy’s locker room — “The quality of a man’s life is in direct proportion to his commitment to excellence.” Notre Dame’s Lou Holtz lists four things needed to be # 1. The first is “Making a commitment to excellence.” Vince Lombardi’s saying, “Winning isn’t everything…It’s the only thing,” simply means this—if you are going to take the time to show up and play, why not commit yourself to winning? An effective coach keeps “raising the bar” and helps people become someone and do something they could not or would not apart from him. Ineffective is the leader who allows those under him or her to settle for mediocrity. A commitment to excellence brings out the best in people. Tolerating mediocrity sends the message that what we’re about really isn’t all that important. The path to excellence begins with “working with a critical few things that really make a difference.” Once we get these down we work on the next critical few things. Don’t try to master too much too soon. Commit yourselves to constant learning and continual improvement. Do what you do with excellence. Excellence is attractive. Do you ask for excellence from those you lead?

7. MASTER THE BASIC SKILLS
Every play is simply a variation of basic athletic skills. John Wooden never allowed his players to stand around. If they were not in a scrimmage or drill, they would be shooting free throws. Little wonder that Wooden’s UCLA Bruins captured the NCAA crown a record ten times. Football innovator, Paul Brown, started his lectures in training camp each year by holding up a ball and saying, “Gentlemen, this is a football!” How about you? Are those on your team “experts in the basics?” Every person on your team should work at becoming an expert in evangelism, basic follow-up, personal Bible study, leading a small group and the ministry of the Holy Spirit. Effectiveness in ministry over a lifetime will be an extension of these basic skills.

8. MONITOR RESULTS
The most effective way to continually improve is to monitor results. Don Shula, who hold the all-time win record for NFL coaches says that the game is not over until the films are reviewed. “The essence of coaching is the attention to details and the monitoring of results–these are what help leaders realize visions and accomplish goals.” Unless we are measuring progress, as individuals and as a team, we will remain ignorant as to where we need to improve. “The game films don’t lie.” Former Colorado coach, Bill McCartney called each player into his office every week to review the previous week’s performance and ask what each player was going to do to help the team win. To coach good performance we need to 1) Define what good performance looks like, 2) Reward good performance and 3) Correct bad performance. It is as simple as that. Through constant feedback and positive encouragement, God can use us to help others maximize their potential.

9. PRACTICE FLEXIBILITY
Shula writes, “I see no point in sticking with a game plan that’s not working…I’m continually out there scanning for data that will make my decision more intelligent.” Although planning is important, we must be willing to “call audibles” to take advantage of an unforeseen opportunity or to avert an unforeseen crisis. The critical path towards our goal resembles the course of a sailboat more than the tracks of a train. Our commitment to the planning process rather than a cast-in-bronze plan will be reflected in our adaptability and half-time adjustments.
10. MASTER THEIR JOB
Tom Landry writes, “A leader doesn’t have to be the smartest member of a group, but he does need to demonstrate a mastery of his field. Mastery means more than just knowing information and facts; it requires an understanding of the information and the ability to apply that information.” Are you a master of your craft? What are you currently doing that will make you more knowledgeable and skillful as a leader?

11. LOVE THEIR PLAYERS
Earlier in this century, football coach, Amos Alonzo Stagg said this, “You must love your boys to get the most out of them and do the most for them. I have worked with boys whom I haven’t admired, but I have loved them just the same. Love has dominated my coaching career as I am sure it has and always will that of many other coaches and teachers.” More recently, UCLA legend, John Wooden, put it this way, “I often told my players that, next to my own flesh and blood, they were the closest to me. They were my children. I got wrapped up in them, their lives and their problems…I feel that my love for young people is the main reason I have stayed in coaching and have refused positions that would have been far more lucrative.” Coaches, who are successful over the distance, no matter how gruff their demeanor, have a great love for their players. The players and their development, not only as players but as people has dominated the attention of successful coaches. All of us leave a wake in the lives of those we touch. Is your wake one of carnage and bitterness or love and worth? You cannot lead who you do not deeply value.

12. SEE PEOPLE FOR WHAT THEY CAN BECOME
A. A. Stagg used to remark that he would tell you in twenty years what kind of team he had–“…when I find out how many doctors and lawyers and good husbands and good citizens have come off of my team.” Good coaches, who are good because they are good people, look beyond the years of contribution a player may make to the team to what being on this team can do for the player. The test of our leadership is this–”Are they better people than when you found them?” Lou Holtz of Notre Dame recruits young players by telling them. “You don’t come to Notre Dame to learn to do something. You come to Notre Dame to learn to be someone.” Joe Paterno writes, “Molding players–the character of players, every bit as much as their skills–occupies the mind, the vigilance, the best moments of the waking hours of a concerned coach. What flour is to bread, the patient molding of character is to coaching.” John Wooden fashioned himself more as a teacher than a coach. One of his favorite poems was written by Glennice L. Harmon, entitled They Ask Me Why I Teach.
They ask me why I teach,
And I reply,
“Where could I find more splendid company?”
There sits a statesman…and there a doctor…
A minister…farmers, merchants, teachers, laborers. And later I may say,
“I knew the lad…but then he was a boy.”
They ask me why I teach, and I reply,
“Where could I find more splendid company?”
How about you? Do you see those on your team as they are or what they can become? Former Cowboy’s coach, Jimmy Johnson would often say, “Treat a person as he is and he will remain that way. Treat a person as he can become and he will become that person.” When veteran Campus Director Roger Hershey calls Freshman to be involved in the ministry he does so on the basis of the “4/40 Principle”–”What you do in the next four years will influence the next forty.” The true test of your coaching is not what they do under your watchful eye but the contribution to the kingdom that they make over a lifetime.

13. HAVE FUN
John Wooden said “My goal every year was to make basketball a pleasure, not a poison.” Enjoying the game and success in the game are not mutually exclusive. Rick Neuheisel, football coach of the Colorado Buffaloes surprised his team during two-a-day practices by leading his team into a tubing expedition down Boulder Creek adjacent to the practice field. Taking time to relax and play communicates that there are more important things in life besides playing a game or ministry. The job of ministry is never done. Don’t wait to celebrate and have fun until the job is over.

14. DEVELOP AND PLAY AS A TEAM
Synergy comes from playing as a team—that the impact of the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Tom Landry writes, “The very best football players have to depend more on their team mates. All eleven men on a team have specific roles on every play. Unless each successfully does his part, the play won’t work. It’s a coordinated effort. Ninety percent performance can mean 100% failure.”

15. LEAD BY EXAMPLE
Don Shula says, “As long as you have credibility, you have leadership to me. Credibility is your people believing that what you say is something they can immediately believe and accept. The minute your credibility is questioned in any way, it affects your leadership capacity.” John Wooden writes, “We who coach have great influence on the lives of those we lead, and the lives we lead will play an important role in their future. It is essential that we regard this as a sacred trust and set the example that we know is right.”


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Martinez finishes 19th at Winter Olympics figure skating finaleFilipino ice skater Michael Martinez made Olympic history when he qualified for medal round of the men’s figure skating

Filipino ice skater Michael Martinez made Olympic history when he qualified for medal round of the men’s figure skating.    
SOCHI – Filipino Olympian skater Michael Martinez finished at 19th place out of 24 skaters at the men’s Figure Skating event at the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia.

Michael Christian Martinez of Philippines competes during the men’s figure skating short program
Martinez, who made Olympic history for the Philippines and Southeast Asia by competing in Sochi, garnered a total score of 184.25 points.

Japan’s Yuzuru Hanyu won the gold medal, while Patrick Chan of Canada received the silver, and Kazakhstan’s Denis Ten got the bronze.

Martinez, who performed to the tune of Ernesto Lecuona’s Malaguena, was the third performer among the 24 skaters in the free program event. He received a score of 119.44 points during Friday’s routine.
The 17-year-old looked more daring doing triple axels, triple double toes, double flip, and lot more presentation towards the judges’ side. However, he fell at one point and landed on his right hand after executing a triple loop.



Michael Christian Martinez of Philippines competes during the men's figure skating short program

“For me, he’s getting stronger and maybe running away a little bit but he’s giving it everything that he’s got and he’s fighting right to the finish,” said a female event commentator.
Martinez ended his routine with a Biellmann Spin, an unusual and difficult maneuver for male figure skaters. “Unusual for men, the Biellmann spin, performance to be proud of,” she said.
“A lot to be proud of, he really did the program well he had a good flow across the ice, the speed was there,” said the male commentator.
During the short program on Thursday, Martinez scored 64.81 points. This enabled him to march to the free program, the medal round of the men’s figure skating event.
The teenager is the first Filipino and Southeast Asian to qualify in the Winter Olympics men’s figure skating.






Even after bowing out of the medal position in the men's figure skating finals, lone Filipino Winter Olympian Michael Christian Martinez has earned the praise and respect of the country's sports officials, on top of the outpouring of support he received from legions of Filipinos.

The 17-year-old figure skater from Parañaque dazzled and wowed the world with his impressive routines in two days of action in the figure skating event at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia.


Martinez, who is the first and youngest Southeast Asian figure skater to compete at the Winter Olympics, made history by barging into the final round after a 64.81-point performance in the short program, followed by a score of 119.44 in the finale to accumulate a score of 184.25 through two days of competition.


Martinez performed third and held the lead after 6 performers had skated.
Martinez weathered an injury months before the Olympics, and his family had to make a number of sacrifices to make it to the international stage, where he would earn respect.

In the very first day alone, commentators already referred to Martinez's performance as "history in the making." And when he capped off his showing in the finale, the commentators were left in awe of the gallantry Martinez had shown.


All praises

Mikee Cojuangco-Jaworski, an athlete herself and the Philippines' representative to the International Olympic Committee, couldn’t help but say positive things to the child prodigy who made his country proud with the Olympic appearance.
"Michael worked very hard to be here. He's here because he deserves to be here. He's driven and passionate," said Cojuangco-Jaworski in a television interview.
She wished nothing but the best for the hard-working Martinez.
"You don't become an Olympian without having those traits. Hopefully he can continue his athletic dreams. It is my prayer that he can do both. He is still young and he has a lot in front of him," she remarked of Martinez, who aspires to become a doctor some day as well.
Philippine Sports Commission chairman Ricardo Garcia meanwhile said the youngster had "the attitude of a winner" and would use his time in Sochi "as a stepping stone to gain more experience for the next Olympics".


The best is yet to come
Martinez has turned into a media darling, said TV5 reporter James Velasquez, stating that Martinez was fielding interview requests left and right. And the kid is only beginning a storied journey.
The youngest competitor in the field spoke right after his performance at the Iceberg Skating Palace on Friday, expressing his elation following his stint. "The first half was pretty good, but halfway though the program I got out of breath, but I did my best all the way through. This is the first time I landed the triple axel in the second half of the program."

Martinez, whose 184.25 points was good for 14th place after 19 performances at time of publish, is already looking forward to the next Winter Games in South Korea.

"My goal is to qualify again for the next Winter Olympics," he said.

"If I can get more support financially, I'm thinking about the next Olympics."
For the Olympian, who has become an overnight local hero and has served as inspiration his countrymen, there is nothing to be ashamed of.

Martinez has a lot more in store in the future; he will only get better. The world awaits.



Source: Rappler.com

The Staggering Impact of Motivated Staff Members


 “Structure is the most important thing that teams must have in the workplace.
 If employees have structure, they know what managers are expecting of them 
and know what they can do to meet those needs. 
The clearer you are, the better it is for your people,”


As a long-time business consultant and advisor, Patricia Huisman-Spuijbroek says consultants should aim to help clients develop companies that produce consistent results in an efficient fashion. However, keeping a productive work environment is about more than having the right resources or strategies—you have to keep your employees motivated.

While some management figures may keep their distance from employees, their lack of involvement or motivating could have a drastic impact on not only the success of the business, but the growth of productivity as well.

According to Huisman-Spuijbroek, an unmotivated employee is a lost opportunity to make the most out of an individual who has the potential to grow and deliver innovation within the company. Dampened morale can spread quickly among employees, and one unmotivated staff member can soon turn into an uninspired workforce.

Currently, rates in productivity—and perhaps different styles in management and motivation—are creating different, widespread economic results for two different countries.

According to a recent Bloomberg report, rising rates of productivity in the United States are making it easier to restrict labor cost, spurring greater economic recovery. However, across the Atlantic, the British economy is getting hit by a lack of worker efficiency. Citing new data from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a recent Reuters UK article explains that economic recovery in the UK is dependent on wage growth and consumer spending—a trend that is in jeopardy if worker productivity and employee motivation remains low.

Patricia Huisman-Spuijbroek responds, “It is clear from both of these current examples that employee productivity—generated through strategized motivation—can have serious implications on the overall stimulus in two different recovering economies. As such, management has a responsibility not only to their companies, but also to their markets, to motivate productivity.”

There is No Single Approach to Employee Motivation

Management and workplace research has attempted for many years to discover one solid way of overseeing employees to yield positive results. However, it has become increasingly apparent—especially as work environments become more diverse—that not one single management style can work for every type of employee.

According to Patricia Huisman-Spuijbroek, it is the duty of executives and managers to get to know their staff. In order to create workforces that work faster and with better accuracy, it is important to get to know team members on a personal level.
With this relationship and insight, management will find it easier to adapt to the unique needs of employees and motivate them to the highest level. For example, some leaders will learn which employees respond better to critical approaches, while others are motivated by rewards.


Trending Employee Motivation Strategies

As suggested by the Reuters UK article noted above, wage growth could be an incredible motivator for employees. However, there are many other ways that business owners and management can fuel success among their team:

-       Present Room for Growth 
Patricia Huisman-Spuijbroek explains that one of the ways to keep an employee motivated is to provide a way for them to become confident in their future. As such, managers that show opportunity for employee growth, and detail how professionals can climb the ranks, will find that their staff typically works harder and with greater focus.
A recent Forbes article suggests, “Talented people generally—not always but often, in my management experience—want to advance in an organization.” The article also notes that individuals may not only be motivated by the capacity to grow within the company, but also gain more critical skills that will encourage professional development.
Spuijbroek explains that mapping out growth for staff is critical to success, as it shows that a company is invested in the success of its employees. The results of this approach can be incredible, especially as it encourages higher rates of employee retention.

-       Stay Involved 
Inspired to create better work environments, Patricia Huisman-Spuijbroek is a major advocate for creating an atmosphere of respect in the office, between all employees.
Noting that respect can generate results, she encourages managers to stay involved with projects and set an empowering example for employees. She explains that distant managers may slowly lose the respect of their staff members, making it difficult to not only achieve productivity but also delegate duties in the future.

-       Maintain Structure 
Staying involved, offering rewards, and creating an atmosphere for growth can all be strong tactics to increasing employee productivity. However, as business leaders, management personnel must establish a structure that works and remains consistent. Without this structure, employees can lose faith in their management and eventually become disconnected with their work, especially if they do not know what to expect on a daily basis.
“Structure is the most important thing that teams must have in the workplace. If employees have structure, they know what managers are expecting of them and know what they can do to meet those needs. The clearer you are, the better it is for your people,” Patricia Huisman-Spuijbroek concludes.


El Niño may make 2014 the hottest year on record

Hold onto your ice lollies. Long-term weather forecasts are suggesting 2014 might be the hottest year since records began. That's because climate bad-boy El Niño seems to be getting ready to spew heat into the atmosphere.
An El Niño occurs when warm water buried below the surface of the Pacific rises up and spreads along the equator towards America. For nine months or more it brings rain and flooding to areas around Peru and Ecuador, and drought and fires to Indonesia and Australia. It is part of a cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
It is notoriously hard to make a prediction before the "spring barrier" as to whether there will be an El Niño in a given year. "The El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle more or less reboots around April-May-June each calendar year," says Scott Power from the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne, Australia.
The problem is that there is so much background variability in the atmosphere and ocean that it is hard to see any signal amidst the noise, says Wenju Cai from the CSIRO, Australia's national research agency in Melbourne. "Even if there is a developing El Niño, it is hard to predict."

Links in the air

But now a model aimed specifically at predicting El Niño seems to be able to sift through the noise by examining a previously-unexplored feature of Pacific weather.
Previous predictions have relied on full climate models. Rather than using this traditional approach, Armin Bunde of Justus Liebig University in Giessen, Germany, and his colleagues looked at the strength of the link between air temperature over the equator and air temperature in the rest of the Pacific. The records showed that, in the year before each El Niño, the two regions became more closely linked, meaning their temperatures became more similar than at other times.
The team also found that, once these atmospheric links reached a critical strength, around 75 per cent of the time an El Niño developed within a year (PNAS, doi.org/rdn). "There is certainly a correlation between the cooperative mode in the atmosphere that we measure and the onset of an El Niño event," says Bunde. Nobody knows why.
Now they say the threshold was crossed in September 2013. "Therefore, the probability is 0.76 that El Niño will occur in 2014," says Bunde. In other words, there is a 76 per cent chance of an El Niño this year.
As a result of climate change 2014 is likely to be one of the hottest years on record. If El Niño does develop this year, it will make 2014 even hotter – maybe the hottest ever, says Cai. But since El Niño normally straddles two calendar years, it might give 2015 that title. "It is possible, but not a sure thing. It can be tipped over either way by other variability."
An increasing number of climate models are now predicting El Niño this year too. It is unclear whether it will be an extreme El Niño like the 1998 event, which is thought to have killed tens of thousands. But Cai thinks an extreme El Niño is unlikely because longer-term variability in the Pacific's weather is suppressing it.

  Source: Click here!


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